In the second round of early parliamentary elections, a seemingly shocking turn occurred – Marine Le Pen's National Rally, which was a relative winner with a third of the votes in the first round, fell to third place behind Macron's centrist coalition and the first-placed New Popular Front, which gathers a broad bloc from the left-center to the extreme left. Did Macron's gambling move pay off and what new adventures await the land of Asterix and the gang?
An elementary example of strategic voting
The plurality system allows the party that is individually the most popular in the largest number of districts, even if it did not enjoy the support of an absolute majority of voters, to achieve a clear seat majority even with a relative majority of votes. In the case when there are many competitors per electoral district and with very thin majorities, it is possible to get a huge seat advantage, as we saw in the British elections, where Labour got almost two thirds of parliamentary seats with a third of the vote.
The French two-round system allows more than two candidates to qualify for the second round and encourages voters to, as it is commonly said in the Hexagon, vote with their heart in the first round and with their mind in the second round. In other words, they will first express their true preference, and in the second round they will consider how to prevent the outcome they least wish for. This system, therefore, encourages strategic voting, which can often mean voting against, rather than voting for. This is exactly what happened on Sunday, with the fact that an important prerequisite for such a mechanism is the strategic adjustment of the parties, that is, the widespread practice of giving up running in the second round (“renouncing”) in order to prevent vote splitting. In this case, the “Republican front” against Le Pen was mobilized, whereby the candidates of the left bloc, as well as the candidates of the centrist bloc, largely forfeited running in the second round to prevent the election of the candidates of the National Rally, who in a good part of the country were relative winners in the first round.
The “Republican front” succeeded in this plan with strategic withdrawals, which the voters recognized as a signal to support the remaining candidates who were not from the National Rally. Before the cancellation, the second round was scheduled for 190 duels, 306 three-way runoffs and 5 four-way runoffs, i.e. four candidates, who won at least 12.5 percent of the total number of registered voters in an electoral district. After mass and coordinated withdrawal, in the second round there were 409 duels, 89 three-way runoffs and two four-way runoffs.
The New Popular Front won a total of 47 mandates more than the same set of parties in the election two years ago, but in the second round, despite the victory, they received almost 2 million votes less. The centrist coalition Ensemble is the definitive loser, with 95 mandates less than in 2022, although in the second round they received only one hundred thousand fewer votes. Although they ended up in third place, the National Rally received about half a million fewer votes in the second round, increased its vote share from a third to 37 percent, and won a total of 53 mandates more than two years ago.
The news that the National Rally will join Orbán's Patriots for Europe went under the radar. The new grouping in the European Parliament includes the Italian Lega, the Czech ANO, which left the liberals, as well as the Austrian (FPÖ) and Dutch freedom parties (Wilders' PVV) and the Spanish Vox. Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy and Poland’s PiS remain in the European Conservatives and Reformists, while Alternative for Germany is still looking for a sufficient number of partners among the remaining parties to the right of the EPP to form another grouping.
New Popular Front
The New Popular Front (NFP), the backbone of which consists of four major parties – the Socialist Party, the EELV (Greens), the France Unbowed of Jean-Luc Mélenchon (LFI), and the French Communist Party – and many smaller parties, as well as several umbrella unions, but also ATTAC, the association for national and international taxation of the rich and ultra-rich and alternative globalization, is a direct continuation of the NUPES coalition that appeared in the 2022 elections. The name “Popular Front” is a clear historical reference to the Popular Front of socialists, radicals (left liberals) and communists in the 1936 elections. The Popular Front at that time was formed under the impression of the alleged attempted coup in 1934 by far-right veteran organizations, as well as the Spanish Civil War. The implicit message is that today, as then, the Republic is facing the threat of fascism and that only a broad left-wing coalition, which may also mean cooperation with the centrists, can save it from peril. In the NFP, they foster a policy of collective leadership, i.e. they could not agree on who would be the prime ministerial candidate before the elections.
The electoral manifesto of the New Popular Front begins with a call for a radical break with Macron's years of “brutalization and mistreatment” and the urgent adoption of 20 bills that should respond to the “social, ecological and peace crisis”. The manifesto envisages the adoption of these bills by decree, that is, by means of the same constitutional provision (Article 49, paragraph 3) that was criticized when used by the Macronists. The provision is about linking the adoption of the bill with a vote of confidence in the government. If the government does not fall, the bill has passed, although there was no majority for it (since there is no government majority either).
Urgent measures include, among other things, freezing the prices of basic necessities and gasoline, canceling Macron’s pension reform (returning the retirement age not to the previous 62, but lowering it to 60), increasing the minimum wage by 10% (i.e. to 1,600 euros net), tax on extra profit of large agricultural producers, moratorium on further construction of highways, 1.3 billion per year for social housing, giving up constitutional reforms related to New Caledonia, reform of the Common Agricultural Policy and rejection of fiscal discipline prescribed by the EU, demand for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and recognition of Palestine in accordance with UN resolutions. In the further part of the program, large investments in public health and education are foreseen, as well as extensive programs against violence, racism and discrimination, with the simultaneous highlighting of the struggle against anti-Semitism and Islamophobia. In addition, the manifesto envisages the repeal of the (relatively) restrictive law on immigration that was pushed through by Minister of the Interior Darmanin (a potential presidential candidate in 2027), as well as a laconic promise that all public services will be available to everyone, regardless of citizenship, everywhere. thirty minutes from the place of residence.
The stumbling block in the implementation of this rather ambitious manifesto is the question of its financing, which is to be achieved through extremely progressive taxation. The last time something similar was attempted, under President Hollande, there was a mass flight of wealthy taxpayers to Switzerland, Belgium and Monaco. In addition, part of the program would certainly lead to a conflict with the European Commission because it concerns common European policies and commitments.
Finally, it should be noted that the NFP manifesto envisages a Sixth Republic, which would go towards a transformation of the semi-presidential system towards a parliamentary system. It would also introduce national popular referendum initiatives, as well as a proportional electoral system and the repeal of Article 49, Paragraph 3 of the Constitution. The paradox lies in the fact that the left bloc would implement emergency measures ("decrees within the framework of the declaration of a social state of exception", as the program says in the introduction) precisely on the basis of Article 49, Paragraph 3, and that they would not have won this many seats under a proportional electoral system. For years, Le Pen won a handful of seats in European elections (list proportional system), and none or only a handful in national ones (majority two-round system). List proportional systems are indeed the standard preferred electoral system of left-wing political parties throughout Europe and the world, but in this case, considering the relationship of political forces in society, it is a matter of severe political myopia.
New Government
Macron rejected Attal's resignation, asking him to remain in office during the transition period. However, since there are no deadlines in which the president would have to call the parliament to appoint a new prime minister (especially in a situation where there is no parliamentary majority), Macron decided to wait for July 18, when the National Assembly should be constituted (with a secret vote on the assembly speaker).
Caesar’s Gallic War begins with the famous sentence “The whole of Gaul is divided into three parts...”. Over two thousand years later, this brilliantly summarizes the constellation of the French party system. There are three main blocs in the new assembly (as in the previous convocation, nota bene) and for now we can rather say who can’t go with whom, rather than who can. Macron's centrists cannot imagine a majority with France Unbowed or with the National Rally. Representatives of the New Popular Front insist that they have a clear mandate to form a government and refuse to include the president's centrists (Renaissance party and partners, gathered in the Ensemble bloc). Within the left coalition there was an agreement in principle that the strongest individual party should provide the prime minister. This is France Unbowed (74 seats, one less than before the election), but their leader Mélenchon is not to the liking of a good part of other partners on the left and is certainly a red flag to the Macronists. Olivier Faure, president of the revived Socialists, who are the second force on the left with 59 (up from 31) would be much more acceptable as prime minister. The Greens won 28 (+5 seats), and the Communists 9 mandates (-2), and it is difficult to expect that someone from their ranks will be the candidate of the left for prime minister.
Macron’s hope is that the centrist minority government can continue because there will not be a majority to topple it, but this presupposes further cooperation of the weakened Republicans, but also the assumption that an agreement could be reached with the Socialists without the rest of the left bloc. The more time passes, and the maximalist program of the New Popular Front crashes against the rock of conflicting egos and ideological differences of the bloc's constituents, the more favorable the situation will be for the current president.
Although the French media have begun to look for Italian examples of concentration governments led by technocratic prime ministers, this is not exactly in the spirit of French politics and would certainly provoke the anger of supporters of the left bloc and provide fuel for another round of politically motivated vandalism. Of course, Mélenchon can offer someone else from his party who will be more acceptable or indeed agree to give the Socialists a prime minister. There are also scenarios that Attal's government survives for the next year and that Macron then dissolves the Assembly again and calls an election, as soon as the constitutional period of 12 months from these elections has passed.
Although Bardella will not be prime minister and the National Assembly is only in third place, the year 2027 looks quite close from the perspective of Le Pen, who intends to run again. If the left bloc really forms the government, it will be an additional wind at the right's back. If there is cooperation between the left and the center, the right will be able to further mobilize supporters while it is least comfortable with the status quo, i.e. the further impoverishment of Attal's minority government. After mourning the unexpected defeat, the next day Marine Le Pen confidently announced that this result only delayed the victory of her party.
The French say il faut reculer pour mieux sauter – it is necessary to step back in order to jump better. Whether this is true for Macron's gambit with an election that he knew his party could not win, or for Le Pen, who has lost now, but this step back will enable her to win in the future, remains to be seen.
