In the parliamentary elections in Sweden in September 2022, the majority of votes were taken by four parties announcing the formation of a conservative, non-socialist government. These are the Moderate Party (M), the Christian Democrats (KD), the Liberals (L) and the Sweden Democrats (SD). The latter won the largest number of seats among the parties of the conservative bloc. That party won the trust of every fifth voter who went to the polls, and for the first time in history became the second strongest party in the Riksdag, behind the Social Democrats. Due to the controversial past, justified and unjustified accusations made by their political opponents, and the unfavorable image promoted by the mainstream media, the Sweden Democrats have not yet been fully accepted as equal coalition partners. Although they are part of the ruling coalition, they did not get ministerial offices in the newly formed government of Ulf Kristersson, the leader of the Moderate Party. However, they got other important leading positions in the administration. The four parties signed a joint programmatic cooperation agreement, which should ensure the implementation of a part of each of their policies and the fulfillment of pre-election promises. Johan Pehrson, who has been the acting leader of the Liberals since April 2022, the party that was and still is the most cautious in terms of cooperation with the Sweden Democrats, who agreed on a coalition with them, was formally unanimously elected as the head of the party on November 26, 2022.
What the Tidö Agreement contains and what it does not contain
The agreement by which the cooperation of the four parties of the ruling coalition is determined and explained is called the Tidö Agreement: Agreement for Sweden (Tidöavtalet: Överenskommelse för Sverige). It was published on October 14, 2022, and consists of 63 pages of text divided into an introduction and seven chapters. It is already clear from the content of the Agreement what the key issues that Ulf Kristersson’s government will deal with in the next four years, if the mandate is completed. After the introductory part, there are chapters on 1) health policy, 2) climate policy and energy, 3) crime prevention, 4) immigration and integration, 5) education, 6) economy and standard of citizens, and 7) on other issues of cooperation. The idea is for the Agreement to regulate the cooperation of the four parties for the entire four-year term of Kristersson’s government, 2022-2026. Attention is drawn to the fact that the Agreement almost does not define issues of Swedish foreign policy at all, which the Sweden Democrats emphasized by announcing in mid-November 2022 that, contrary to the Government’s position, they will not support the expansion of the Schengen area to include Croatia, Bulgaria and Romania. The foreign policy issues dealt with in the Agreement refer to what is most important to the Sweden Democrats and, it seems, to more conservative voices from other coalition parties, which is conditional cooperation with the countries from which migrants come to Sweden, in order to increase the effectiveness of their expulsion and repatriation. Sweden’s provision of aid to these countries in the form of development cooperation funds, which were very generous during the mandates of the left-green governments, is connected with the willingness of these countries to admit their citizens if necessary. In the program of the Moderate Party, it is explained that Sweden abandons the goal of paying 1% of the gross national income for international development aid (which is, per capita, among the highest in the world; the UN recommendation is 0.7% of GNI), and that, rather than focusing on the amount, attention should be directed to the quality of the projects that are financed from these funds. Judging by the Tidö Agreement, Sweden’s presence, influence, and image in international processes have not been given nearly as much attention as Social-Democrats’ governments have emphasized for decades. Among the likely reasons for the lack of articulated foreign policy ambitions is Sweden’s imminent accession to NATO, for which Turkey sets tricky conditions. Thus, many negotiations and processes take place away from the public eye and could result in Sweden’s withdrawal from some well-established principles of human rights protection. The new government is also expected to provide military aid to Ukraine, which would mean an additional shift from traditional neutrality of Sweden. A month after the publication of the Agreement, Kristersson’s government presented to the Riksdag a proposal to amend the Constitution, according to which spying for foreign interests and the dissemination of secret information that could harm Sweden’s relations with other countries or international organizations are classified as criminal offences. Although the amendments to the Constitution were criticized by a part of the media as restricting freedom of speech, they were accepted by the Social Democrats and the Center Party and were adopted by a large majority of 270 votes in the Riksdag.
Elimination of the energy crisis
The Tidö Agreement was written in such a way that the average Swedish citizen who is facing current issues of immediate vital importance, and not about ideologies, will be satisfied with it. Thus, state credit guarantees in the amount of up to SEK 400 billion (almost 37 billion EUR) are planned for the construction of new nuclear plants. Laws have been announced that will prevent closure of nuclear facilities based on purely political considerations. This should ensure the stability of supply and the price of electricity. Due to a large increase in prices during 2022, cash grants to households and businesses to pay electricity bills are foreseen. A reduction in fuel prices for motor vehicles was also announced, but based on the budget proposal for 2023, it is predicted that this reduction will amount to only 40 SEK (0,037 EUR) for diesel and 15 SEK (0,014 EUR) for gasoline, which is criticized in the media as a violation of an important pre-election promise.
Immigration, integration, and crime
A large part of the Agreement is dedicated to solving problems related to immigration and the integration of immigrants into Swedish society. In the introductory part of that chapter, a “paradigm change regarding the admission of asylum seekers” was announced. The long-standing practice of welcoming asylum seekers and then their relatives through family reunification programs, which was carried out by the Social Democrats and the Greens, has long been the subject of harsh criticism by politicians from the conservative political spectrum, as well as by part of the wider public. The political rise of the Sweden Democrats has often been associated with their opposition to unselective and excessive immigration, and the lenient treatment of immigrants who commit serious crimes. That is why parts of the Tidö Agreement leave the impression that it was written primarily by the Sweden Democrats. It features some solutions that would have been virtually unthinkable for the Swedish public sphere ten years ago, although they can easily be understood as matters of common sense. For example, people who reside illegally in Sweden will not be paid social welfare. Municipalities will be prohibited by law from supporting them, and will be allowed to cover only very basic expenses of illegal foreign nationals, of which only food and a return ticket to the country of origin are listed in the Agreement. This law will not apply to Civil society organizations, but on the other hand, the supervision of foreign financing of both the civil sector and religious communities linked to “Islamism and extremism” will increase. More extensive work on integration is foreseen, which will include culture and language, and adaptation to Swedish democratic principles. Asylum seekers’ right to lawyers and translators, which the state has generously funded until now, will be reduced, as will the rights of those who receive asylum to hire at will translators at state or municipal expense. Immigrants will be introduced to Swedish values regarding equality, women’s rights, and religious freedoms. Some provisions in the Agreement are more or less directly related to immigrants, which is in line with the general perception, although they do not refer to immigrants only. Among such provisions are those addressing the issue of crime, organized crime, honor-related crimes, forced marriage, abuse of social welfare and other forms of state or municipal support, and long-term unemployment. Violence in recent years has reached a scale unprecedented in modern Swedish history. At the end of November 2022 National Television published statistics according to which in the last three years, more than seven hundred cases of firearms shooting took place within a radius of less than 500 meters from an elementary school, and almost two hundred thousand children attend a school in the vicinity of a place of shooting. From January to mid-November 2022, 57 people were killed and 98 people were wounded in 360 attacks with firearms. In the same period, 175 explosions or attempted explosions have been recorded. Under the Tidö Agreement, prosecutors will be allowed to conduct time-limited searches in certain neighborhoods, including persons and vehicles, and seize illegal weapons, explosives and, as specifically stated, hand grenades. Constitutional changes are foreseen that would facilitate supervision, early detection, and prevention of the activities of criminal gangs and networks. Possibility of expelling members of criminal organizations who do not have Swedish citizenship, regardless of whether or not they have been convicted, will be considered. Penalties for participation in organized crime will be increased, and the possibility of anonymous testimony will be introduced. Juvenile perpetrators of serious criminal offenses will be punished by prison, and not by programs provided by the social service as before. Parole will become the exception and not the rule, and measures of long-term supervision and deprivation of freedom will be considered for persons who pose long-lasting threat to society.
What can Croatia learn?
The sharp increase in violence and crime in the traditionally non-violent and easy-going Swedish society, largely due to uncontrolled immigration and the overly liberal asylum policies of Swedish Social Democrats, should worry Croatia as well. There is an increasing pressure at the Croatian borders by migrants who arrive from the very same areas from which a large part of the perpetrators of violence and crime in Sweden came. Dealing with the challenge they pose is not only a humanitarian but first and foremost a security issue. It would be wise and commendable to perceive it as such and act accordingly, based on Swedish experiences, and not wait for our own.
Conclusion
The Tidö agreement gives the impression that it, to a large degree, addresses policies about which the Sweden Democrats were the most outspoken during the election campaign. That is why their formal absence from the Government seems unusual. On the other hand, Sweden Democrats may well prove to be the biggest political winners of this mandate of the conservative Swedish government, no matter how successful or unsuccessful it may be. If successful, the Sweden Democrats will be able to emphasize their role in the creation of its policies. In case of failure, they may convincingly plead lack of influence on its implementation.
